FAREWELL CHINA….WELCOME CHINA
(JUNE 1, 2004)
THE BACKGROUND
We divide ourselves as to which China we should have diplomatic relations with. Dominica as a whole has nothing to benefit by such division and should actively discourage it. The matter is seldom as clear cut as what we reduce it to be: If I am pro-government I support it. I denounce it if I am pro-opposition.
Taiwan has 22.6m people. China's population is 1,275.1m or 56 times as many as Taiwan. China was once out of the United Nations, while Taiwan was in. Good sense prevailed and China was eventually admitted. But it was at the expense of Taiwan, which lost its seat.
Even Taiwan today admits the injustice and the absurdity of leaving China and over 20% of the world's population out of the UN. But China insists that Taiwan, like Hong Kong, is part of China and consequently cannot be independent and cannot claim separate UN membership.
For a couple of decades Taiwan has secured the support in the UN of certain relatively tiny and insecure member states. Until 2004, Dominica was perhaps the staunchest ally of Taiwan, making its case before the world-body. It did not matter which party in Dominica was in office.
By and large, the world settled into believing that membership in the UN of China or Taiwan was mutually exclusive: Both cannot have membership. Dominica, until now, took the impractical position that this was not necessarily so and that it could help do something about it. In consideration of that support, Taiwan gave Dominica financial and other aid packages.
INADEQUATE CONSIDERATION
I know that there is a principle in the law of contract that "consideration need not be adequate." But this is not contract. It is diplomacy. Too many of us magnify a few million dollars dangled under our nose - because we can see no further.
I am on public record, years ago, as having pointed out that Taiwanese aid, as consideration for Dominica's support at the UN, was inadequate, and that Taiwan should do more. It seems no one heard or listened.
I am also on record as having interviewed the Taiwanese Charge d'Affaires in Dominica in 2004. I asked Dr. Daniel LIAO why was it that a relatively ineffective country like Dominica held up the Taiwanese flag at the UN; why not the powerful friends of Taiwan such as the United States, or the European Union or Japan? Dr. Liao gave a sensible and sensitive response: if they did not support, the latter countries did not oppose either. Of course, that did not quite answer the question.
In the same interview Dr. Liao said something that should have been instructive to us: At one extreme, five percent of Taiwanese want total independence from China. At the other extreme, another five percent actually want to join mainland China. The vast majority of Taiwanese seem indifferent!! They simply went about their business working sixteen (16) hours a day.
CANNIBALISM
If this is so, why are we cannibalizing ourselves over China or China? In telling the truth, it seems Dr. Liao may have unwittingly been stabbing our dividers in the back.
"THE ECONOMIST POCKET WORLD IN FIGURES 2003 EDITION" provided me with some statistics, with which to work. China then imported US$25.4 billion from Taiwan. Bolster that with US$31.2 billion which Taiwan exported to Hong Kong. If Hong Kong is part of China, which it is, the conclusion is unassailable: China is the single most important trading partner of Taiwan.
If we understand that, then we should also understand why we must cease our arrant nonsense of feuding among ourselves over China and Taiwan. I believe that they shall be united some day, without force.
ARGUMENT FOR TAIWAN
In favor of Taiwan the following points are discernible:
- Our own tortuous, colonial experience inclines toward support for a smaller territory seeking autonomy from a more powerful entity.
- It is farcical to believe that we can be of much assistance to China. Once we have withdrawn our support for Taiwan, China can calculate that we cannot return to Taiwan's favour and China will take us for granted as does other great powers.
- In his address to Dominicans, certain remarks could advantageously have been left unsaid by Hon. Skerrit.
- Ms. Grace Tung as interpreter or otherwise was an insensitive choice given her controversial history here. This is a more popular view than government may wish to admit.
- Unless we are very careful Dominica will not gain as it should from Chinese assistance. For example, if China sends its own nationals to work on the projects, then labour intensity of those projects will be meaningless since Dominican workers will not find employment.
- We might have attempted "what big people" do, i.e., maintain good relations with both Chinas. But this assumes both Chinas will readily permit Dominica to act as big powers.
NEW DISPENSATION
Those who support the move to China contend:
- There were inherent weaknesses in the Taiwan-Dominica relationship that cried out for a new dispensation. Example, assistance was inadequate.
- There was never enough emphasis on training of Dominicans in "Chinese" and other languages of the Pacific rim. This should be redressed at once.
- The official response of the Taiwanese to Mr. Skerrit was as unfortunate as some of Mr. Skerrit's own remarks. If Chinese diplomacy is condemned as "dollar" diplomacy, Taiwanese diplomacy can be daubed as "fifty cents" diplomacy. Clearly, it is in Dominica's interest to opt for the dollar kind.
- Many among us castigated the current government for inaugurating austerity measures without plans, programmes and projects designed to restore some dignity, to those who have lost jobs and income.
Now the government says that its strategic move in foreign policy is intended to create jobs. We must not now be heard to contradict ourselves and say, "we also castigate you for trying to create jobs."
By the way, recent history has shown that the Dominica electorate does not necessarily allow politicians to keep their jobs merely because they have broken ground close enough to polling day. Whatever the political antics and semantics the voters will determine one way or the next.
PROFILE OF CHINA
We must now consider some statistics about the People's Republic of China (PRC), our new friend:
- It is the world's most populous country (1,275.1m) and the third largest country after Russia and Canada.
- Of the world's nine fastest growing cities, five are located in China. Those include Wenzhou and Yantai that are first and second respectively.
- Measured in terms of purchasing power China is second only to the United States among the world's biggest economies.
- Since 1980, it has maintained an impressive 9 to 10% average annual increase in real gdp. Today it is second only to Bosnia in terms of highest economic growth as traditionally measured.
- Its surplus on current account is US$20.5 billion. Compare that to the USA deficit of $444.7 billion, the largest deficit on earth.
- China is the largest recipient of bilateral and multilateral aid. This is not a "positive". But it is also an aid donor even if it does not disclose the amount of aid provided.
- It ranks second only to Vietnam as the world's biggest raider of software. This is a dubious honour.
- It has the world's largest armed forces, 3.4m in regulars and reserves.
- Our newest friend can teach us a lot about food security: China tends to produce most of what it consumes most.
- It is the world's biggest producer of cereals, of meat, fruit, vegetables and rice.
- China is the largest producer and consumer of zinc.
- It is the biggest producer and consumer of tin as well.
- It is the world's first in cotton production and consumption.
- It is the world's second biggest consumer of lead (660,000 tonnes) after the USA. But it is also the world's second biggest producer of lead, producing the same 660,000 tonnes that it consumes.
- In both production and consumption of coal China is second only to the USA.
- 60% of China's population is in the labour force; this is second in the world only to Thailand.
- China is recorded as having 1,428,126 people in prison. This is second only to the USA's 2,071,686. But China's statistic represented only 112 prisoners in every 100,000 population. The statistic of the USA comprises 732 in every 100,000 population.
- China (a "socialist" country trying to catch up) has the world's highest growth in market capitalization in dollar terms, 28,548% increase, 1990 to 2000.
- It also has the highest growth in value traded, in dollar terms, 1991 to 2000, some 87,892%.
This impressive listing is not exhaustive. Some will argue that all this augurs well for us. Others will say that those statistics prove that Dominica's friendship is irrelevant to China.