It would be a gross understatement to say that the images and political symbols coming out of the Middle East are baffling and somewhat discouraging. Secretary Powell is about to depart for Washington empty handed . There is despair on all sides. Israel is pressing its advantage and refuses to withdraw from the occupied territories. Arafat refuses to consider a ceasefire until the Israelis withdraw, hoping for a face saving gesture that potentially could go a long way to assuage the Palestinians’ sense of humiliation at the hands of a superior enemy.

    I say the images are baffling because there are not very many examples in recent history where a client state publicly disagrees with and embarrasses its sponsor in the way that the Israelis did to the United States. By calling on Sharon repeatedly to withdraw from Palestinian territories and later sending his Secretary of State to the region, President Bush suffered a major defeat at the hands of Israel’s Sharon as Powell prepares to leave without even obtaining a cease fire, let alone progress on some of the major issues dividing the warring parties.

    Or did he?

    One gets a sense that the images coming out of the Middle East are carefully managed and choreographed. Did President Bush tell Prime Minister Sharon in a private telephone conversation that it was okay to go after those “bastards”, those despicable terrorists in the Palestinian territories? Did Bush send a different public message that he was horrified by the Israeli invasion by openly calling on Sharon to withdraw ? And was his target audience for the latter message the Arab community whom Bush seems to be wooing as part of his Iraq strategy?

    The fact is we do not know but the truth will come out in time. What we can say for sure is that it is highly unusual for a country that bankrolls another to not have a measure of control over its client? Whatever happened to the concept of cutting off aid to a wayward client state? I can’t imagine Egypt, the second largest recepient of US aid after Israel openly defying the wishes of the US and not be threatened with the cutoff of foreign aid. To reach this conclusion one must, of course, factor out the reality of the influential Jewish lobby in Washington, a subject we dealt with at some length in a previous piece.

    The sad reality is that whichever scenario is correct, the public appeal to withdraw or the private nod to root out terrorism by whatever means necessary, the end message is not pretty. President Bush comes across as either duplicitous or weak and uninfluential at best.

    Poor Bush. He is pressured by geopolitical considerations as well as the reality of domestic politics in the United States. Only yesterday some 100,000 Israeli supporters, mainly American Jews, assembled at the Washington Mall, the same place that Martin Luther King delivered his “ I have a Dream “ speech, to demonstrate support for Israel .In addition, a group of Christian conservatives, the likes of Jerry Fallwell and Pat Robertson have come out publicly calling on the US to side with Israel in the current crisis. Let the Palestinians be damned! Obviously, these men of Christ are not willing to lead by the example of One who came to comfort the oppressed.

    But the larger issue has to do with the principle of accountability in the manner nations conduct themselves with other nations. If the Powell mission fails, as it appears it will, it may well signal a major breakdown in international order in the post Cold War world. Because the truth is, the US has traditionally seen the Israeli- Palestinian conflict as within its sphere of influence and has in the past behaved as if other nations were encroaching upon its sphere of influence, if say a Russia or its predecessor, the Soviet Union showed unusual interest in that region. If the US cannot pull Israel’s chain who will? And the question is not merely academic. One only has to tune on to the news to find the grim reminders of what happens when a crisis is allowed to fester and it gets to the point where both sides are locked into a position devoid of hope or a face saving solution. The Palestinians have paid and are continuing to pay a heavy price. The US is also paying a price in terms of its credibility in the eyes of those who see it as duplicitous or simply ineffective in the management of its relations with its client state.

    Who is calling the tune any way?